Event anniversaries that remain unresolved dominate the week

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Hello and welcome to the working week,

Prepare to remember past scandals and war, which still resonate today. Tuesday is the fifth anniversary of the fire that engulfed Grenfell Tower in west London, revealing gaps in the building’s cladding and triggering a crisis for apartment owners across the UK that continues to generate repercussions.

It is also the 40th anniversary of the end of the Falklands War, the wounds of which remain fresh in Buenos Aires.

Friday marks half a century since the robbery of the Watergate hotel-apartment-office complex in Washington. Fortunately, this one was resolved more quickly, although it left the irritating legacy of the suffix added to what seems to be every subsequent political scandal.

The latest of these, ‘partygate’, has a way of working, although the main protagonist, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, will (ironically) be at the center of a legitimate social gathering this week as he turns 58. Saturday.

Partygate spin-off series Are You Being (Poorly) Served is set to see another episode with the government promising to release controversial and long-delayed legislation on Monday to overturn the Northern Ireland Protocol. As my colleague Peter Foster noted in his excellent Brexit Briefing newsletter last week, this is unlikely to end well.

Johnson is also expected to announce a new “growth plan” this week alongside his Chancellor Rishi Sunak. After the OECD’s verdict on UK growth next year – only sanctions-hit Russia is expected to fare worse among G20 countries – the country clearly needs a new plan, otherwise of a new Prime Minister to implement it.

France goes to the polls again on Sunday for the second round of legislative elections. Newly elected President Emmanuel Macron’s concern is not the far right this time but an alliance of the far left.

There will be at least one resolution this week. Colombians will go to the polls on Sunday for the second round of their country’s presidential election, which will decide whether populist Rodolfo Hernández can defeat former leftist guerrilla Gustavo Petro. Whatever the outcome, it will be an interesting contest.

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Economic data

It’s going to be (another) week for interest rate news. The main attraction will be the gathering of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, but there will also be decisions from the Bank of England and its equivalents in Japan, Switzerland and Brazil.

The question is not whether the tightening of monetary policy will be accelerated but by how much — the answer to this question depends in part on your confidence in the ability of the given economy to achieve a soft landing or whether it is condemned to enter a recession.

Friday’s jump in US inflation fueled talk of a quick tightening. Policymakers have already signaled that, at a minimum, the Fed will proceed with a series of half-point rate hikes. Traders have priced the federal funds rate at around 2.9% by the end of the year, compared to its current target range of 0.75 to 1%. The OECD placed its marker last week ahead of the release of US inflation figures, calling for faster action from the Fed.

Companies

Retail is heavily represented in the earnings calendar this week. The main act is Tesco, Britain’s biggest supermarket chain, with watchers keen to learn more about how inflation is hitting household spending. However, just two months after its annual results, few expect the company to deviate from its cautious scenario that this year’s earnings will be held back by the need for buyers to control prices.

I asked FT retail correspondent Jonathan Eley for a view. “The company has gained market share in recent months, but first quarter sales growth figures will be clouded by the closure of pubs and restaurants in the same period a year ago,” he said. . “It boosted supermarket sales, but hurt Booker, Tesco’s wholesaler.”

Among analysts’ comments, Barclays forecast an overall decline of 1.8% in the UK, with lower volumes partially offset by higher prices.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • India, May Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures

  • UK, final April GDP data plus April production statistics, construction production and trade figures

Tuesday

  • Germany, May Final CPI Figures and ZEW Business Sentiment Survey

  • OPEC’s monthly oil market report

  • UK unemployment figures

  • United States, May Producer Price Index (PPI) figures.

  • Results: Ashtead Group Q4, Bell Q2 Trade Update, Ferguson Q3, Paragon banking group H1

Wednesday

  • Brazil, decision of the monetary policy committee of Banco Central do Brasil

  • China, industrial production and retail sales figures in May

  • EU, March industrial production and April merchandise trade data

  • France, final CPI and harmonized consumer price index (HICP) figures for May

  • India, trade statistics

  • Japan, April industrial production data

  • Russia, Q1 GDP flash figures

  • United States, Federal Open Market Committee decision on interest rates. Also, the Wells Fargo Housing Market Index plus May data on retail sales and food sales.

  • Results: Clariant Q1, WH Smith Third Quarter Business Update

Thursday

  • Canada, April wholesale trade figures

  • EU and Eurozone first quarter wage data

  • Ferrari organizes a capital market day in Maranello, Italy. Chief Executive Benedetto Vigna is set to unveil the company’s new long-term strategy as the sports car maker adapts to growing demand for electric vehicles.

  • Italy, May CPI data

  • Japan, trade balance figures for May

  • Switzerland, interest rate decision

  • United Kingdom, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision on interest rates

  • United States, residential construction figures in May

  • Results: Adobe systems Q2, Boohoo Q1 Commercial Update, Halford AF

Friday

  • Canada, monthly price indices for industrial products and raw materials

  • EU, May HICP figures

  • Japan, Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Committee Decision on Interest Rates

  • UK May insolvency plus retail sales figures

  • United States, May industrial production data

  • Results: Tesco Q1 Trade Update

Global Events

Finally, here’s a look at some of the other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

  • France, the defense industry exhibition Eurosatory starts in Paris

  • Switzerland, the 12th World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference (MC12), a biennial gathering of the WTO’s highest decision-making body, continues in Geneva

  • In the UK, the Cinch Championships, seen as an indicator of player performance at the upcoming Wimbledon tennis tournament, begin at the Queen’s Club and London Technology Week begins at various venues in the capital and online

Tuesday

  • 40th anniversary of the Argentine surrender in the Falklands War

  • UK, on ​​the fifth anniversary of the fire that engulfed west London’s Grenfell Tower high-rise building, leaving 72 dead and 203 households homeless. Today, the first flight to Rwanda carrying cross-Channel migrants is about to depart. Royal Ascot, the world’s most famous race meeting, considered by many to be the highlight of Britain’s summer social calendar, begins. The first “supermoon” of 2022 will be visible.

  • In the United States, former President Donald Trump turns 76

Wednesday

  • Belgium and NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels for a two-day meeting. The event will include a working dinner to which representatives from Finland, Georgia, Sweden, Ukraine and the EU will be invited. A separate meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine, hosted by the United States, will take place at NATO Headquarters.

  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks at a London School of Economics event

Thursday

  • The 122nd US Open golf tournament begins at the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. Tiger Woods will not participate, but there will be plenty of other familiar faces on the greens despite the US Golf Association’s displeasure over players joining the LIV series on breakaways. The contest ends on Sunday.

Friday

  • The annual feast of Corpus Christi is celebrated by the Catholic Church and some other Western churches

  • Iceland celebrates its national day

  • United States, 50th anniversary of the break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in the Watergate office, apartment and hotel complex in Washington that led to the Watergate scandal

Saturday

  • UK, Rugby Union Aviva Premiership season final at Twickenham. Moreover, Boris Johnson is 58 years old.

  • In the United States, the 146th annual Westminster Kennel Club dog show – postponed until February – begins in New York with nearly 3,000 dogs from more than 200 breeds taking part in the second longest running American sporting event

Sunday

  • Colombia, second round of voting in the presidential election

  • France, second round of voting in the legislative elections

  • United States, June 19 commemoration of the emancipation of enslaved African Americans and celebration of African American culture

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